After spending a week in black, commodities rebounded on Monday. International crude oil prices rose by more than 3% and returned above 100 US dollars. The domestic market also rebounded across the board. Among them, rubber rebounded the most in last week's decline, up 2.8%. As domestic natural rubber consumption accounts for one-third of the world's total, natural rubber prices have become the focus of market attention.

According to statistics, last week alone, the market value of international commodity futures markets “evaporated” 99 billion U.S. dollars, the largest weekly drop since the 2008 financial crisis, and the decline in natural rubber was even more significant. It is reported that the domestic market price of natural rubber on the 6th settlement price of 3,008 yuan / ton, down 6.19%, although yesterday Hujiao contract all the red, but analysts interviewed believe that the recent natural rubber rebound is mainly experienced last week After the retaliatory rebound after the fall, the future price trend of natural rubber is still not optimistic; downstream tire companies are also cautious about this.

LME-based metals closed up more than 1% over the period of aluminum rose in 2011 cotton supply increased cotton prices difficult to stir the CME significantly increase the energy futures margin "dangerous" crude oil price brewing rebound in the mid-range weak Difficult to change and news investment strategy will: master teach you to see The price of scouring rubber is still not optimistic. In fact, since the beginning of February of this year, domestic natural rubber began to decline. After experiencing the range shocks from mid-March to mid-April, natural rubber accelerated its decline and fell to a key position. 30,000 yuan / ton, from the mid-February until today, the decline is close to 30%, is the 2009 financial crisis, the day after the start of natural rubber prices rose the largest decline.

“The price of natural rubber is relatively large. As far as I know, the price of natural rubber is currently around 30,000 yuan. From past experience, the price of natural rubber will start to rebound after reaching 30,000 yuan, but the final trend is affected by many factors. At present, It is not easy to make a judgment, but overall, the outlook is bearish.” Xin Tao’s Wang Tao, an analyst at Xinhua Futures, told reporters: “Only from the aspect of supply and demand, the peak season for the production of natural rubber is May to July each year, but this year's major supply Both Thailand and the Philippines have suffered heavy rain, and supply may be tight; while the downstream domestic auto industry has entered a downward avenue, the current operating rate of tire companies is generally low, and demand is not very strong, so the trend of the market outlook is hard to say, but it should be noted that The natural rubber price itself is relatively high, and it is indeed the callback."

CYC Futures Researcher Yang Jun bluntly stated: "Natural rubber prices will rebound in the short term, but there is little room for rebound. In the long term, the focus of transaction price will be lowered. It is estimated that natural rubber prices will be 28,000 this year. -The shock between the 38,000 yuan, because in the short term there is a demand for oversold bounce, and the current inventory of natural rubber is not much; but with the late listing of new plastic, the supply situation will be significantly improved."

According to him, the price elasticity of natural rubber is high. Apart from the fact that the upstream and downstream price control of the industry is not strong, the main reason is the promotion of financial capital, and the impact of systemic risks caused by the tightening of national policies cannot be ignored. For example, from January to May 2010, the country raised a total of three times the deposit reserve ratio, the market is expected to tighten the policy, the plastic market fell 21%; and in 2011 under the pressure of inflation, austerity policy to suppress the market The intensity was far greater than in 2010, and the price of natural rubber soared above 40,000 yuan, and the bubble was too large. The tightening of macroeconomic policies in 2011 made the speculative properties of the plastic market appear rapidly. At present, prices are still operating at high levels, and the trend in the latter period is not optimistic.

Tire business cost pressure is undoubtedly no doubt, affected by natural rubber price fluctuations bear the brunt of downstream tire companies. It is reported that natural rubber is one of the indispensable raw materials and directly determines the profitability of the company. Relevant sources said that before the cost of natural rubber accounted for about 40% of corporate costs, but with the rise in the price of natural rubber, the cost proportion has exceeded 50%; even if the tire prices have risen last year, but the cumulative increase is only 20% - 30%, tire companies still face greater cost pressures.

Sun Wenze, a securities representative of Shuangqin Co., Ltd., said: “Because of the large proportion of total cost of natural rubber, raw material price fluctuations certainly have a great impact on us. Natural rubber decline is good for the company, but currently raw materials The price is also facing uncertainty, and the company is also difficult to control.” And an employee of ST Huang Hai (600579) told the reporter directly: “Although Tianjiao fell a bit last week, the overall price is still high. At present, our pressure is still very large. In addition to the high prices of raw materials, the current downstream demand is not very optimistic, and the current product market competition is also relatively strong.” But for the impact of natural rubber price fluctuations on the performance of the company, these people said "Hard to say". However, according to reporters' inquiries, last year, the loss of tire companies exceeded 20%, and the loss of tire companies this year has exceeded 50%.

"Actually, for tire companies, whether price is up or down, stability is the best." Yang Jun said: "Because most tire companies are mainly based on spot purchases, there are few stocks, hedging And other safe-haven methods are not necessarily suitable.” Yang Jun’s views were agreed by the above-mentioned company figures.

"The real value of hedging is not easy, and it still faces some risks," said Sun Wen. ST Huanghai employees believe that: "It is not realistic for companies to sell goods because it requires sufficient cash flow support and the prices of natural rubber are ups and downs, and they are not afraid to go wrong. The risk is too high. Although there are some natural rubber prices, If we fall back, companies will not dare to make large reserves, because if the price of rubber falls, then the company will not be able to make a bad loss, so we usually buy it on demand."