The “12th Five-Year Plan†of natural gas prepared by the National Energy Administration has passed the review and submitted to the State Council for approval. It is expected that it will be announced soon. This news may open the way for natural gas vehicles (especially natural gas commercial vehicles).
Yao Mingde, president of the China Road Transport Association, revealed to the media a few days ago: “At present, China’s relevant departments are also continuing to promote the use of clean energy in commercial vehicles.†At the same time, Zhang Guobao, director of the expert advisory committee of the National Energy Commission, also said that electric vehicles are accepted by the society. It will take time before the development of natural gas commercial vehicles is the right way. Natural gas vehicles have great potential for development under the consideration of energy conservation, emission reduction, and economical use.
The National Development and Reform Commission’s “Research on Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Policy†report pointed out that in 2012, the scale of China’s natural gas vehicle ownership reached 1 million vehicles, and the consumption of natural gas for vehicles reached 8 billion cubic meters, achieving 6.4 million tons of alternative fuels, and liquefied petroleum gas vehicles. The number of vehicles reached 100,000 vehicles, and the consumption of liquefied petroleum gas for vehicles reached 680,000 tons. By 2020, the consumption of natural gas for vehicles in China will reach 20 billion cubic meters, 16 million tons of alternative fuel will be realized, and the consumption of liquefied petroleum gas for vehicles will reach 400. Tens of tons, to achieve an alternative fuel of 3.6 million tons.
Under the background of current energy crisis, huge pressure of emission reduction and high logistics cost, the voice of “relying on gas to replace oil†has become higher and higher. As clean energy, natural gas, especially LNG, will be applied in automobiles. Become a future trend.
â— Natural gas vehicles have large emission reductions and high economic benefits. LNG is the mainstream of development. The main features of natural gas vehicles are energy conservation, emission reduction, safety and cleanliness, and they can significantly reduce operating costs, with significant economic and social benefits. Under the background of energy crisis, energy saving and emission reduction, and high logistics costs, the transportation sector, which is a major oil consumer and a major emitter of pollution, has become the focus of attention. Natural gas vehicles have become increasingly popular.
If gas is completely replaced by natural gas, carbon dioxide can be reduced by 24%, carbon monoxide by 97%, hydrocarbons by 72%, nitrogen oxides by 14%, and solid particles such as benzene, lead, and dust by 100%. The comprehensive emission index is reduced by about 80%. The average carbon dioxide emission reduction by bicycles is about 22t/year, which improves the energy structure of road transportation and has great potential for environmental protection.
â— The main difference between the use of obvious economic advantages <br> <br> natural gas vehicles and natural gas vehicles are conventional vehicles: 1) re-design of the engine, 2) was equipped with gas tank. In terms of using economical measures, we use heavy trucks as an example. An LNG heavy truck will lead to a one-time purchase cost increase of more than 30% due to the improvement of the engine and the matching of gas storage tanks. Gas storage tanks increase the cost by about RMB 60,000. If two gas storage tanks are equipped, the cost will increase by about RMB 100,000 to 10,000. With two gas storage tanks, the cruising range can exceed 1,000 kilometers, which can basically meet the current domestic long-distance transportation needs.
Theoretically speaking, LNG heavy trucks can reduce the cost of more than 40% at the end of the use, but based on actual user feedback, the actual cost of use is between 30% and 40%, and 35% may be closest to the true level. According to our simple calculation, a Shaanxi Tonka 40-ton tractor can save nearly 140,000 yuan in fuel costs in a year if it travels 150,000 kilometers per year. It does not need a year to recover the new one-time purchase cost. Natural gas heavy trucks do not contain sulfur, mercury and other particulates because they emit less engine losses and have a much longer service life than diesel vehicles. Therefore, the economic effects are even more significant.
â— LNG highlight the advantages of comprehensive car <br> <br> natural gas passenger car demand is mainly from the government and various counties and cities public transportation group, energy conservation and improve the city's image is the most important consideration, the mandatory nature of environmental concerns and policies to be Greater than economic significance.
For LNG heavy trucks, superior economics of use will lead to changes in the demand structure. With the continuous improvement of the LNG refueling station network layout and continuous breakthrough in LNG storage technology, the proportion of LNG heavy truck sales will gradually increase, reaching a certain zero. After the cut-off point, large-scale replacement of diesel heavy trucks will occur.
In terms of the world's energy security and social effects, LNG vehicles have outstanding advantages in terms of fuel safety, vehicle service life, and other important factors in addition to environmental protection and economy.
â— LNG automotive vehicle development is the main direction of gas <br> <br> promotion of models from the point of view, CNG and LNG are now applied mainly in commercial vehicles. Among them, CNG is mainly suitable for urban buses and city taxis, while LNG is not only applicable to urban buses, but also to large-scale freight vehicles and intercity buses, especially long-distance vehicles. LNG represents the mainstream of the development of natural gas vehicles.
LNG vehicles are new energy vehicles powered by liquefied natural gas. The main working principle is: When the vehicle is working, the liquid natural gas in the gas cylinder is vaporized into gaseous natural gas through a carburetor, the high-pressure gas is depressurized through a pressure reducer, and is ignited after being mixed with the engine and air, and the generated ability provides power for the vehicle.
◠hardware and software environment continues to improve - NGV opportunity to usher in the era of <br> <br> position of natural gas in primary energy structure will gradually increase. The main feature of China's energy reserves is “more coal and less oil and lack of gas.†In a one-time energy structure, coal accounts for 70%, petroleum accounts for 19%, water energy accounts for 6%, natural gas accounts for 3%, and nuclear energy, wind energy, and solar energy account for 2%. China's total supply of oil and coal accounts for nearly 90% of the total, while the United States is only 58%. Unreasonable energy consumption structure makes China face the challenges of oil security, pollution control and greenhouse gas emission reduction, reducing coal and oil at a time. The proportion of energy in the energy structure and the increase in the share of clean energy such as natural gas, wind energy, and solar energy are major development trends.
The "12th Five-Year Plan for Natural Gas" under development is also a general direction for China's natural gas supply structure in 2015. It is estimated that by 2015, natural gas consumption will reach 260 billion cubic meters, and the proportion of primary energy consumption will be from The current 4% rises to 7%-8%. With the deepening of natural gas price reform and the continuous development and utilization of unconventional natural gas, such as coalbed methane and shale gas, China's energy “gasification†process will further accelerate.
â— natural gas supply network is basically formed <br> <br> in response to the growing demand for natural gas, China is actively building a large network of natural gas supply, at present, China's natural gas pipeline length of about 35,000 kilometers, according to the plan, by 2015, China The total length of natural gas pipeline planning will be close to 100,000 kilometers, which is nearly three times the current level.
China currently has two major pipelines, namely the West-East Gas Pipeline and the Second Line, responsible for transporting natural gas from Central Asia and resource-rich Xinjiang to the energy-strapped eastern regions of the country. In March this year, the construction of the West-East Gas Pipeline III project was started. It is expected to be completed by the end of the year and ventilation will be achieved in 2014. At that time, the three West-to-East gas pipelines will form a comprehensive natural gas pipeline network that crosses east-west and north-south through the Shan-Jing-1 and Sichuan-East Gas pipelines.
â— related industrial policy is expected to release into the intensive period <br> <br> as a greener, more efficient energy, gas industry by the Chinese Government's strong support in recent years. Judging from the current situation, industry encouragement policies have not only stayed at the national level, but also local governments have begun to actively participate. On April 25th, 2012, the National Energy Administration issued the “Status, Existing Problems, and Countermeasures for the Promotion of Natural Gas Utilization in the Transportation Sector in Chinaâ€.
According to the proposal, in order to boost the application of natural gas in the transportation sector, related industrial policies, technical standards, and supporting policies will be further formulated and improved during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period. We expect that in the coming years, the industrial policies and technical standards for the detailed industries of the natural gas industry chain will be issued in a centralized manner, among which the policy support for natural gas filling stations and natural gas automobile manufacturing industries also has greater expectations. The relevant policies will promote natural gas vehicles. The industry will grow rapidly in the coming years.
â— The improvement of the energy structure in the transportation sector can be achieved in 2011. China's automobile production has reached 18.42 million vehicles, the proportion of motor vehicle fuel consumption has reached 60%, and the amount of automobile pollutants has reached 70% of the total social emissions, among which the proportion of commercial vehicle emissions is 60%, while the heavy truck emissions accounted for 30% of the proportion of commercial vehicles, and the rate of increase of 20% per year.
At present, the proportion of China’s oil consumption in transportation energy has exceeded 90%, but due to the continuous rise in refined oil prices, the use of ordinary gasoline and diesel vehicles has also gradually increased. Under the background of soaring oil prices and increasing pressure from environmental protection, increasing the proportion of gas used in transportation has important strategic significance in reducing oil dependence on foreign countries, optimizing energy structure, reducing pollutant emissions, and responding to climate change, and there is huge room for improvement.
â— Accelerated deployment of gas stations throughout the country, and elimination of natural gas vehicle barriers
ICISC1 statistics show that there are nearly 2,500 CNG refueling stations built in China and nearly 300 LNG refueling stations. From the distribution point of view, it is mainly concentrated in Xinjiang, the eastern coastal areas, and Sichuan and Chongqing regions. The Midwest and Northeast regions are basically missing. The number of filling stations has a decisive impact on the demand for natural gas vehicles. Some fixed-line freighters have no worries in purchasing LNG heavy trucks due to the presence of filling stations along the way. Urban filling stations can provide CNG passenger cars and LNG passenger vehicles well. .
China National Petroleum Corporation, Sinopec Corp., CNOOC, and Xinao Energy have all adopted natural gas vehicles as their key business areas. They plan to invest heavily in gas stations and develop natural gas for vehicles. It is expected that during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period, a large number of new gas stations will be built in the national natural gas pipelines and along national highways, in areas surrounding coastal LNG receiving stations, and in cities where natural gas supplies are sufficient, and the total number of domestic natural gas filling stations will increase by 2%. More than 5,000 seats will be reached, and natural gas supply capacity for vehicles will reach 40 to 50 billion cubic meters per year. The number of LNG filling stations is expected to exceed 2,000 in 2013. According to the national plan, by 2020, about 12,000 natural gas filling stations for vehicles will be built in the country.
PetroChina - PetroChina Kunlun Energy Co., Ltd. PetroChina Kunlun Energy is currently focusing on “substituting gas for fuel†to promote the use of LNG as a power fuel for trucks, buses, rigs, and ships to replace diesel.
At present, the number of LNG refueling stations completed and put into operation by CNPC is 70, while the number of LNG refueling stations built and planned to be put into production by June is 162, and CNPC will also provide more than 5,000 units in the country. Among them, in Henan Province, CNPC plans to build 126 LNG refueling stations on the “three horizontal and three vertical†highways in the province by the end of the twelfth five-year plan, and plans to plan it on the “five vertical and three horizontal†national and provincial highways. Construction of 122 LNG refueling stations. In addition, in Shandong Province, the company plans to develop 720 LNG refueling stations during the 12th Five-Year Plan period.
CNOOC - CNOOC New Energy Co., Ltd. CNOOC will focus on "two continents and one bay" (the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and Bohai Bay), optimize the LNG terminal filling network, and at the same time, it will also radiate inland. At present, CNOOC's liquefied natural gas refueling stations have been completed and put into production. More than 70 seats. In the next five years, CNOOC plans to build 1,000 gas stations for LNG (liquefied natural gas). The cost of removing the land is only about 10 billion yuan.
Sinopec - The existing gas station network expansion or transformation. Sinopec has more than one half of the country's gas stations. The development of LNG refueling stations for vehicles has a unique advantage. Sinopec's new gas station features “four-in-oneâ€, including the addition of refined oil, sales of non-oil products, natural gas filling, and electric vehicles. The four functions of battery replacement are realized at a gas station.
Sinopec has also been involved in the field of LNG refueling stations for the past two years. In August 2010, Sinopec's first LNG refueling station (Guiyang Guile Gas Station) was completed and put into production; in December 2011, the second LNG refueling station (Gongho LNG Oil and Gas Combustion Station in Foshan, Guangdong Province) was voted Yun, two gas filling stations were constructed and operated by Sinopec Guizhou Petroleum Guiyang Branch and Guangdong Petroleum Branch respectively.
Private enterprises - Xinjiang Guanghui, Xinao Energy, Tianlun Gas. In addition to the three major oils, some private enterprises are actively engaged in the construction of LNG refueling stations. The most representative companies are Xinjiang Guanghui, Xinao Energy and Tianlun Gas.
There are more than 80 liquefied natural gas refueling stations built and put into operation in Xinjiang Guanghui, which are mainly distributed in the Xinjiang region. The company also plans to build 300 LNG refueling stations in Xinjiang in 2011-2015. In addition, it will gradually move to Gansu and Ningxia. And radiation in Shandong and other places.
Xinao Energy currently owns 203 CNG refueling stations and quickly deploys LNG refueling stations. It also proposes a new vehicle fuel gas development model integrating financial leasing, trial use, and service.
Tianlun Gas has built and put into operation 3 upstream gas source bases in Henan, Jilin, Gansu, Sichuan, Guangxi and other provinces, obtained 20 city gas franchise rights, and has more than 50 refueling stations that are already in operation. Several gas stations are under construction.
â— natural gas vehicle market start soon - low active distribution of natural gas vehicles worldwide <br> <br> domestic commercial enterprises accounted for the next few years compound growth rate of more than 20%
From a global perspective, natural gas vehicle consumption is still in its infancy. According to the statistics of the International Natural Gas Automobile Association, by the year 2010, the proportion of natural gas vehicles in the world was only 0.99%. The top three countries were Pakistan, Armenia and Bolivia, with 61.14%, 32.13% and 20.48%, respectively. The ratio is only 0.32%, and the United States is only 0.04%.
According to the statistics of the Iangag Group, by the end of 2010, the number of natural gas vehicles in China had reached 450,000, and the compound annual growth rate in the last ten years was over 54%. In the future, natural gas vehicles in China will continue to develop rapidly. According to estimates by Mr. Dai Jiaquan, an expert at the Institute of Market Research of the China Petroleum Economic and Technical Research Institute, by 2015, the number of natural gas vehicles in China will reach 1.5 million, and in 2020 it will reach 3 million. The future 5 The compound annual growth rate will also be as high as 27%.
At present, most of China's natural gas vehicle ownership is CNG vehicles. The main reasons for the slower development of LNG vehicles than CNG vehicles include: high initial input costs, relatively high supply system prices, and low LNG refueling stations. However, with the acceleration of the construction of LNG filling stations and the breakthrough in LNG storage technology and endurance, LNG vehicles have become the focus of research and development in various countries. It is expected that in the next two years, the growth rate of China's LNG vehicle ownership will be maintained at more than 50%, far higher than the growth rate of CNG vehicle ownership.
The mainstream commercial vehicle companies actively carry out technological reserves. The natural gas automobile market is rapidly moving. In the face of huge market cakes, various commercial vehicle companies have begun to actively carry out technical reserves. Nobody wants to be left behind in this battle without gun smoke. .
â— heavy truck industry - first into the king, Shanqi a dominance.
In the past two years, China's LNG heavy trucks have grown rapidly under the backdrop of high oil prices. Last year, the domestic heavy truck market fell by more than 13%. LNG heavy trucks bucked the trend with a 30% growth rate. However, the current LNG heavy truck inventory is still very low. Compared with the scale of nearly one million nationwide, the penetration rate is still less than 1%. huge.
Shaanxi Automobile Group began to launch LNG heavy trucks in 2005. It is the earliest in the industry and has a history of 7 years. It has the highest reputation in the industry, the most mature technology solutions, and the most complete product lineage. With its first-mover advantage, the current market inventory The occupancy rate exceeds 65%, and a unique pattern has emerged in the LNG heavy truck segment. In 2005, Shaanxi Automobile sold only more than 100 LNG heavy trucks. By 2011, it had reached 3,800 units, and its compound growth rate was close to 80%. It is estimated that in the next few years, the sales volume of the LNG heavy truck industry can maintain a growth rate of more than 20%, which is very rare compared to the near-saturated heavy truck market.
In the face of the ever-expanding LNG heavy truck market, the early layout has become the consensus of mainstream heavy truck manufacturers in China. At present, many heavy truck companies, including Beiben Heavy Truck, Futian Auman, Hongyan, Hualing, and Dayun, will step up efforts to develop LNG. The heavy truck market is listed as one of the priorities of this year's work.
The bus industry – crowds dance together, niche passenger cars companies occupying the stage in the rich gas source area. At present, the sales ratio of CNG and LNG in the passenger vehicle sector in China is around 2:1, and there is a trend of further increase in LNG in the future. From the perspective of the distribution area, areas with abundant gas sources (such as the southwest region) are the main areas for production and sales of natural gas buses. The products in these areas are dominated by small passenger bus brands, such as Sichuan Nanjun Automobile, Chengdu Anda Special Vehicle, and Sichuan Automobile. Group, Dongfeng Nanchong Automobile, Chongqing Hengtong Bus and so on.
The Southwest region is endowed with unique advantages in resources. The production and production of natural gas passenger cars can be started on the spot with obvious cost advantages and strong competitive advantages. In the first 7 months of 2011, the total market share of the 10 small bus manufacturers including Yangzijiang and Chongqing Hengtong reached 64.1% in the main sales area of ​​natural gas buses.
Due to government protection and other reasons, mainstream bus companies such as “Sanlong Yitong†have a low penetration rate in the main sales areas of natural gas buses, but leading enterprises have sufficient technology research and development strength, market reputation and marketing capabilities, and are currently active in key cities and regions in the country. Expansion of the natural gas bus market, sales rose rapidly, the future market concentration will gradually tilt to the mainstream bus companies.
â— promotion entered a substantive stage of commercial vehicles - buses before the truck <br> <br> for passenger cars buyers, due to the limited annual mileage driven, and less 100 km fuel consumption, save money to be much weaker effect In commercial vehicles, the number of refueling stations is currently limited, the distribution is uneven, and maintenance is relatively inconvenient. Passenger car owners are not yet considering purchasing natural gas passenger vehicles. As oil prices continue to rise, natural gas price reforms further deepen, and in the future, the continuous development and utilization of unconventional natural gas, such as coalbed methane and shale gas, and the environment of energy saving and emission reduction, the promotion of natural gas commercial vehicles will enter a substantive stage.
Because of the fixed route, energy saving and emission reduction, and the ability to represent the green and environmental image of the city, natural gas buses have become an active target for all levels of government. Most natural gas trucks are used for long-distance transportation. The number of filling stations restricts the demand. Normally, special-purpose freight transportation is carried out, and drivers who are provided with fueling stations along the way will consider buying LNG trucks.
Upstream core component manufacturers benefit the most, and urban public transportation updates in favor of the passenger car market The domestic CNG and LNG markets are mainly concentrated in the automotive and marine sectors. Currently, the demand in the automotive sector occupies most of the share. Due to the nature of natural gas, the automotive market is mainly concentrated on heavy-duty trucks, buses and buses.
Compared with traditional automobiles, there are three main changes in natural gas vehicles: 1) the matching of CNG or LNG gas supply systems; 2) the reengineering or processing of fuel engines into natural gas engines; and 3) the redesign of the chassis structure.
Among them, gas storage tanks and natural gas engines belong to the core technical level and are the key research and development direction for upstream component suppliers. The chassis design technology has a low breakthrough, and existing chassis manufacturers can provide adaptability through the redesign of structures. product.
Investment main line: core component manufacturers> bus companies> heavy truck companies We follow the investment lines of “core parts manufacturers> bus companies> heavy truck companiesâ€. Upstream gas supply systems and natural gas engine manufacturers are working on technology and the industry is gradually In the mature stage, manufacturers with leading technology and first industrialization will gain greater competitive advantage and eventually become leaders in the supply chain of natural gas vehicles.
Natural gas bus products are concentrated in buses, and the attributes of energy saving and emission reduction and urban image enhancement are more attractive to government decision-making and are expected to speed up the replacement process of existing passenger cars. Natural gas heavy trucks are still in the initial stage, with a small amount of efficiency.
â— primary stage LNG supply system market capacity of more than 2 billion yuan <br> <br> terms of LNG manufacturing applications, due to the development of China's LNG industry started relatively late, we are now in the scale and industrialization. By 2009, there were more than 4,300 enterprises producing pressure vessels in China, including 573 enterprises above designated size. However, the overall development of the pressure vessel industry is unbalanced. There are numerous manufacturers and the industrial concentration is relatively low. The market competition between medium and low-end products is fierce.
In terms of LNG gas supply systems, currently the leading domestic companies are: CIMC Enric, Furui equipment, China First Heavy Machinery Group, Shandong Huanri Group and Beijing Tianhai Industry, CIMC Enric is Hong Kong Union. The listed company of the exchange, Furui equipment is an A-share listed company and it belongs to the integrated one-stop service provider of LNG gas supply system. It is a good investment target.
â— natural gas engine according to potential move, mainstream businesses are molded product <br> <br> passenger car and truck diesel engines mainly, at present, the competitive landscape diesel engine market is basically stable, Yuchai bus market dominance, accounting for nearly 70 %, Dongfeng Chaochai, Xichai, Weichai, and Kunming Yunnei belong to the second tier, accounting for 5%~10%. The truck market, Xichai, Weichai, Yuchai and Kunming Yunnei belong to the first group, accounting for 13% to 20% of the total, with a combined market share of more than 60%.
With the increasing concern of natural gas vehicles, all major engine companies are actively carrying out technological research and development, completing technical reserves, and all have molded products launched. Among them, Weichai Power has been supporting a number of passenger car and truck companies with the highest degree of promotion and the highest level of technology. mature.
â— Bus replacement brings new demand, and the low volume of heavy trucks is low
At present, more than 90% of natural gas vehicles belong to urban buses. As the process of urbanization continues to advance, the internal growth momentum of buses remains strong. Due to the need for improvement of urban image and the pressure of PM2.5 testing, the upgrading of fuel buses is also a process. In the process of acceleration, bus companies will fully benefit from the continuous increase in the number of public transport buses and the new demand brought by the replacement of existing fuel buses in advance for natural gas buses.
Heavy truck products are currently sold mainly in areas with sufficient natural gas supply and more gas stations. The economy of use is the most important factor for heavy truck users. However, the current situation is limited due to the high cost of one-off purchases and the low number of gas stations and uneven distribution. User needs. The promotion of heavy trucks is in the stage of small-scale and small-scale trials. At present, the proportion of the heavy trucks is relatively small compared to the industry scale, which does not have a substantial impact on heavy truck manufacturers.
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