Who will affect the trend of domestic corn in the second quarter?

January: The Spring Festival is approaching, the traditional grain sales peak is coming, and the domestic corn market prices are mostly weak, especially in the North China region. Specifically, in mid-January, the peak of the grain sales of farmers before the holiday, the market supply is sufficient, but the purchase of corn in the northeast of the province is rapidly advancing, and is approaching the 70 million tons mark, which still supports the corn price, so the northeast corn The price is relatively stable under the support of the acquisition policy, and the local market is mixed. The contradiction between supply and demand in the North China corn market is outstanding, and its price continues to fall. The north and south port markets are light and volatile, and their prices continue to show signs of decline. In the second half of January, the market purchase and sales activities gradually became lighter. In addition to the rebound in the North China production area due to weather, the other production and sales areas remained basically stable. At the same time, the 2016 Central Document No. 1 was officially announced, and the corn purchasing and storage policy was officially announced. Faced with adjustments, it will have a certain impact on the psychological level of the market.

February: Before and after the Lunar New Year, the festive atmosphere is strong, the market purchases and sales are relatively light, and the price trend of corn is slightly different. After the Spring Festival holiday, the “yearly taste” of the northeast producing area has not been dispersed, and the market purchase and sales have recovered relatively slowly. With sporadic acquisitions, the purchase price has risen steadily, while the farmers in the North China region and the traders have been more active in selling grain. The price of corn has fallen sharply. The purchase and sales of the north and south ports are light, the price of corn has risen and fallen, and the purchase of corn has exceeded 8,000. Tens of tons and marching toward 90 million tons, the market bullish sentiment is increasing, in addition to the market's hot news about the targeted sales of temporary corn, the market mentality is negative.

March: The domestic corn market has coexisting long and short factors, and the characteristics of the “policy market” have become more apparent, and its prices have remained weak overall (although the price of corn in North China has occasionally rebounded, but only staged market behavior), one side faces The total purchase of corn reserves exceeded 100 million tons. At the same time, Jilin Province introduced the procurement subsidy policy for corn deep processing enterprises in the first half of this year, which was encouraging to the market. On the other hand, the policy rumors continued, mainly due to the over-target corn sales and auction news, and the near 3 At the end of the month, the news that the northeast region will cancel the new season corn purchase and purchase policy and turn to the direct subsidy policy for farmers will be suppressed. In addition, it is worth mentioning that this month, the corn outflow from the North China production area increased to the northeast and south sales areas, and it was seriously inverted from the northeast corn price. Since late March, the northern port has been upside down in the northeastern food port and strictly controlled the North China corn. The occurrence of trade stagnation in the case of counter-current has also caused market concern.

For the trend of domestic corn market in the second quarter, the author analyzes that the following aspects are particularly important for the domestic corn market price and market mentality. First, the total amount of corn purchases in the temporary reserve has broken “100 million”, although it is gradually coming to an end, but Before the end (April 30), its support for the bottom of corn prices remained the same; second, up to 260 million tons of temporary storage stocks need to be released to the market, the first batch of stocks of more than 70 million tons of corn listed in 2012 and 2013 have been placed It is imminent that large-scale grain output will have a certain pressure on corn prices. Third, the elimination of the corn storage system and the establishment of new acquisition and subsidy mechanisms are both the inevitable result of market reversal and the inevitable requirement for promoting agricultural supply-side reform. The "boots" of the reform have already landed. At present, people are paying more attention to the other "boots" - how will the "green corn temporary storage policy adjustment to the 'market-acquisition' plus 'subsidy' new mechanism" will be carried out, so later The policy is crucial to the influence of all parties in the market; the fourth is that imported cheap cereals will be concentrated in Hong Kong from April to May, and may continue to squeeze some countries. The corn consumption space is also a shadow for the upcoming corn auction, and it is still unknown whether China's future grain imports will be "stayed" in the second half of the year.

In the second quarter, the domestic corn market will operate. For the northeast region, there are not many corn surplus grains in the northeast region. The corn deep processing enterprises and feed enterprises have significantly lowered the corn purchase price. The purchase price of some deep processing enterprises is close to the level of North China. The Northeastern Reserve is still in large-scale acquisition, and the market surplus grain is expected to be sold before the end of April. In the latter part of the Northeast, the main grain sales are policy reserves. The corn market price will mainly refer to the corn de-stocking policy, and the market will be exhausted. Next, it is expected that there will be no further significant reduction in the price of policy grain outbounds. For the North China region, the current negative factors in the corn market in North China have been basically digested, and the factors that cause the price of corn in North China to fall further are only the accelerated sales of grain by farmers. However, the current surplus of corn in North China is less than 30%, and some areas are in central Hebei and Shandong. The surplus grain of corn in the south-central and southern Henan areas is already around 20%. Only the surplus grain of corn in the north of Henan and Shanxi is relatively large. The situation of pressure on the price caused by the centralized selling of farmers may not be easy to occur. At the same time, the demand for corn in North China will gradually improve, and the demand for feeding will be improved. Starting from the bottom, deep processing demand will also be boosted by increased seasonal consumption.

In general, the rhythm and price positioning of the corn store in the second quarter will become the new “wind vane” of the market. At the same time, according to the current situation of the domestic corn market, with the basic consumption of surplus grain in the hands of farmers in the later stage, the downstream demand for feed farming With the gradual recovery, the country's “near auction, remote control” pattern will reappear. In addition, we are still optimistic about the prospects of corn.