China Drying Network News The domestic calcium carbide market has changed slightly in the previous period, and the slumping situation of the company's underemployment has produced a slight rebound. As of August 19, the ex-factory price of calcium carbide in the western regions of Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Ningxia, etc. generally reached 3,150 to 3,250 yuan (ton price, the same below). The ex-factory price of calcium carbide in Shanxi Province was about 3,350 yuan, and the ex-factory price of calcium carbide in southwestern China climbed to more than 3,450 yuan. The price of calcium carbide in East China was over 4,200 yuan, which was more than 150 yuan higher than that of April-May. Moreover, the transaction volume was significantly enlarged and the goods were taken smoothly. The operating rate of calcium carbide installations in all parts of the country has generally risen to more than 70%, and even 80% in some regions, setting the best level in the year.
The reasons for the recent rise in the price of calcium carbide were analyzed. Zhang Yu, chairman of the China Calcium Carbide Industry Association, Li Houzhi, chairman of the Shaanxi Coal Mining Group's Binchang Mining Group, and the person in charge of the Inner Mongolia Junzheng Industrial Group all believe that the following three factors are mainly responsible:
First, since April, coal prices have fallen sharply, sales have been sluggish, inventories have increased, and coal companies have been under tight liquidity, and have been forced to significantly cut production or even stop production. Lump coal supply was reduced, pushing lump coal price increases, raising the cost of production of blue carbon companies, making the operating rate of blue carbon enterprises decline. The market of blue carbon from the previous period of supply exceeds demand to tight supply. The price has increased by 80 to 100 yuan since August. Currently, the ex-factory price of blue carbon in Shenmu is generally 920 to 950 yuan. The rise in the price of blue carbon raised the cost of calcium carbide business and supported the rebound of calcium carbide prices.
Second, with the increasingly stringent environmental protection laws and regulations, as well as the increasing elimination of backward and heavy production capacity and high backward energy production capacity in various regions, many lime kiln factories have been eliminated, reducing the quantity of white-gray products and stimulating the price of white ash to rise by 20 to 20. 50 yuan, a high level of 400 yuan. According to the production of 1 ton of calcium carbide consumed 1.2 tons of white ash calculation, the rise of white ash prices, equivalent to increase the cost of calcium carbide 30 to 60 yuan. This also supports the rise in the price of calcium carbide.
Third, with the release of economic data in the first half of the year, local governments are increasingly concerned about the increasing pressure on economic downturn in the second half of the year. In order to curb the economic downturn, various economic stimulus plans have been introduced in various places in the near future. Some regions even encourage energy-consuming industries to start production. As a high-energy-consuming chlor-alkali industry, not only has the electricity price concessions and other incentive policies given by the local governments been granted, but some of them have also been asked to focus on the overall situation of maintaining stability and to start production at full capacity. In addition, according to the usual practice, September-October is the golden season of real estate market sales, but also the traditional production and consumption season of PVC pipes and profiles. PVC companies have better expectations for the market outlook, and they also have the desire and impulse to open up enough horsepower to produce. Under the combined effect of internal and external factors, the operating rate of the PVC industry has rapidly increased, which has increased the demand for calcium carbide and boosted the volume and price of the calcium carbide market.
“But because the deep-seated contradictions that affect the development of the industry have not been fundamentally solved, and have even been accumulated and intensified, the space for the rise of calcium carbide prices will be very limited, and there will be a great deal of possibility of late shock consolidation.†Zhang Yu and other experts reminded.
First of all, the demand is difficult to continuously enlarge. The PVC industry is highly related to the real estate market. Although some local governments have secretly “relieved†the real estate industry, the central government’s determination to regulate and control real estate is very firm. It not only repeatedly reiterated that it would continue to control the “real fire†of the real estate market, but also sent more recently. The inspection team inspected the implementation of real estate control policies throughout the country and put forward suggestions for rectification of some provinces and cities. Under such circumstances, the traditional "Golden 9 Silver Ten" of the real estate market may once again fail, and the demand for PVC pipe and profiles will not increase substantially, which in turn will increase the inventory of PVC enterprises, reduce the production of enterprises, reduce the amount of calcium carbide, and reduce the use of calcium carbide. Downward or consolidation.
Secondly, the introduction of preferential policies for the production of high-energy-consuming enterprises in some places has benefited calcium carbide enterprises. For example, in some places, the price of electricity from calcium carbide is lowered by 0.25-0.3 yuan/kWh, correspondingly reducing the cost of calcium carbide production by 70-100 yuan. In addition, the recent increase in the price of calcium carbide by 150 yuan is equivalent to reducing the cost of calcium carbide enterprises by more than 200 yuan, and many companies have begun to make profits. However, if the price of calcium carbide in the later period rises again, it will stimulate more enterprises to start production at full capacity. Therefore, the supply of calcium carbide will inevitably increase rapidly. The market will once again exceed supply, and the price of piezoelectric stone will decline.
Finally, overcapacity restricts the healthy development of the industry. In 2011, China's calcium carbide production capacity has reached 25 million tons, according to the actual output of the same year, 17 million tons, overcapacity of about 30%. In the second half of the year, with the commissioning of more than 3 million tons of newly-built calcium carbide projects, such as Shaanxi Coal Chemical Group's Shenmu Coal Chemical Industry Company, Guodian Ningxia Yinglite, Inner Mongolia Hongfeng, and Inner Mongolia Shuangxin, the national calcium carbide production capacity will increase to more than 28 million tons. Excessive excess production capacity will not only affect the calcium carbide market, but will also become the biggest constraint to the healthy and sustainable development of the industry. It will enable calcium carbide prices to operate near the company's cost line for a long period of time. The operating rate will continue to be low and the profit will be reduced or even lost for a long period of time. .
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