In response to the overcapacity problem in the photovoltaic industry that is closely watched by the venture capital industry, Sun Shide, chairman of Suntech Solar Power Company, stated on the 23rd at the 2009 entrepreneurs' annual meeting that from the perspective of photovoltaic raw materials, 50% of polysilicon will be imported this year. There is only a partial excess of low-end production capacity.
Although the current price of polysilicon is still hovering at a relatively low position of 500,000 yuan/ton, it has already shown a bottoming-out rebound trend from the perspective of the industry. The listed companies’ profit in the third quarter rose more sharply than before, and the outlook for the listed companies continued to pick up.
50% of silicon material is imported this year
"The financial crisis has caused the shrinkage of foreign PV markets, resulting in temporary overcapacity, and the inability to release domestic production capacity, leading to overcapacity in the country. The backward process and the inability of products to meet quality requirements are the main reasons for the overcapacity." Shi Zhengrong thinks.
Shi Zhengrong said, “The Chinese people will flicker, plan production capacity is 10 times the construction capacity, build capacity is 10 times the actual production capacity. Every company wants to show their entreaties before the government, the result has misled the government, in fact, this year we 50% The raw materials needed to rely on foreign imports. Therefore, the current so-called excess capacity, in fact, is the low-end excess capacity, inefficient excess production capacity and poor quality of excess capacity."
He said that in the first half of the year, Suntech had about 30% of its excess capacity. However, starting from July, Suntech's capacity was not enough. By the end of the year, the products were sold out, and even the expansion was too late.
In fact, from Suntech's financial report, Shi Zhengrong did not "fudge" the industry. Suntech's revenue and net profit in the third quarter of 2009 increased by 85% and 342% respectively from the second quarter. Suntech optimistically forecasts that shipments in 2010 will increase by 75% from 2009, and the company also plans to increase its capacity target at the end of 2010 from the current 1GW to 1.4GW.
Photovoltaic companies bottom out
Although the current price of polysilicon is still hovering at a relatively low position of 500,000 yuan/ton, from the perspective of industry prospects, it has already shown a trend of bottoming out. The performance of photovoltaic companies in all countries, especially Chinese companies, has increased significantly in the third quarter. KGI Securities released a report on the 23rd that high investment returns led to a rebound in demand and the industry peak season will continue into the fourth quarter. Since 2009, the price of photovoltaic products has dropped sharply, making the investment return rate of investment PV systems in Italy, France, Germany, Spain and Other countries appear to be attractive. Among them, the subsidy rate in the German market may be lowered in 2010 and may trigger an upsurge in advance investment. International oil prices remain high and other favorable factors, the global photovoltaic industry in the third quarter, demand back to Wen Wendao Road, the major manufacturers of shipments and revenue increased significantly compared to the second quarter, Chinese companies 挟 cost advantage, the performance of the largest rebound.
In addition, ten departments such as the National Development and Reform Commission have classified iron and steel, cement, flat glass, coal chemical, polysilicon, and wind power equipment as industries with overcapacity. In principle, projects that increase production capacity will no longer be approved. This will stabilize the polysilicon spot price and reduce the risk of rapid price fall in the future, which will have a beneficial effect on related companies.
Pay attention to the national photovoltaic power price policy
For the photovoltaic power price policy, Shi Zhengrong insists that only 1.44 yuan of electricity price can realize large-scale development of photovoltaic installations. “No one company can make money if the price is lower than 1.44 yuan. When an industry is still infancy, if it cannot be profitable in the process of operation, what kind of strength and capital will continue to expand? How can we continue to invest in R&D? Study more and better technologies and products?"
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